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Many in India argue that given the high stakes that China and India have in each other’s economies, conflict between the two is highly unlikely. But as tensions in South China Sea exemplify, economic interdependence has never really been an antidote to conflict. New Delhi should watch China’s behaviour closely and learn due lessons in dealing with the rising dragon in its vicinity. Against this backdrop of China’s rise and relative US decline, it is imperative that India contribute to the Asian security dynamic to bring greater stability to the region especially as Sino-Indian relations become turbulent with each passing day.
Last Updated (Sunday, 18 November 2012 14:51)
India and China: New Great Game in the Indo-Pacific Ocean Region
| Security |
A perceptive article on the unfolding “New Great Game” in not just the IOR but what the writer calls the “Indo-Pacific Ocean Region”. The meteoric rise in China’s GDP is fuelling the impressive rise of the PLA-Navy and its increasingly assertive stance in the South China and the Yellow Sea. The writer critically examines the naval balance between India and China and the consequences thereof. With the announcement of an American pivot plan in the East by President Obama and Defence Secretary Leon Panetta’s recent visit to India, the great game is revving up in earnest. Can India choose to be non-aligned in the context of a balance of power game which involves its primary security threat? Can we afford to sit on the fence? China has Pakistan as its key regional balancer for India and is engaging India in the Chinese game of surround called Weiqi (Go). We need to bandwagon with those countries that feel equally threatened by China’s menacing rise. Its too late perhaps to sit on the fence.
Last Updated (Sunday, 18 November 2012 14:49)
A Region in Turmoil: Threats to Gulf Energy and Shipping
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A Region in Turmoil: Threats to Gulf Energy and Shipping Rather than offering a comprehensive, encyclopedic threat analysis, this Insight aims to pinpoint the most immediate threats to the security of Gulf energy and international shipping and the likelihood that they could become a reality. It constitutes a first attempt at looking at the likely scenarios that so far have been given inadequate attention.
Last Updated (Sunday, 18 November 2012 14:50)
China´s New Military Leadership
| Security |
A major overhaul of China’s military leadership is underway. The changes in the CMC will have implications for India and China’s other neighbours as the new appointees will redefine China’s military doctrine, strategy and the PLA’s role in safeguarding national and territorial interests. The induction of additional representatives from the PLAAF and PLAN into the CMC will mean greater emphasis on coordinated planning and conduct of Joint Integrated Operations (JIO). In the running for the post of PLA CGS to replace General Chen Bingde is Commander of the Shenyang Military Region, General Zhang Youxia (born: 1950), a ‘princeling’ who was promoted full General in July 2011. He is one of the few Generals with battle experience having participated in the Sino-Vietnam War.
Last Updated (Sunday, 18 November 2012 14:50)
India-China: Preparing For The Inevitable
| Security |
Despite recurring exhortations from diplomats and politicians on both sides to build a relationship between India and China of “strategic mutual trust”, “strategic maturity”, “strategic stability”, it is reasonably clear that the coming decades will witness intensifying “strategic competition”. Whether this can degenerate into a confrontation at some point in time, or worse, a conflict which neither country can afford, will largely depend on the extent to which China gives up the Middle Kingdom mentality and accepts its responsibilities as an equal member of the comity of nations, even if it is more powerful than most.
Last Updated (Sunday, 18 November 2012 14:49)
Revolt in the Middle East: Arab monarchies next?
| Security |
Synopsis
The ever sharper sectarian divide between Sunni and Shiite Muslims in the Middle East constitutes the Achilles heel of Gulf monarchies like Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. They have been resisting political reforms and seeking to insulate themselves from the wave of popular protests that have swept the region for the past two years.
Last Updated (Sunday, 18 November 2012 14:50)
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