India - India's Nuclear Dilemma
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A highly cerebral former Vice Chief of the Army reflects upon the recent introduction of Nasr Tactical Nuclear Missiles by the Pak Army. He feels this constitutes a paradigm shift which calls for a rethinking of our nuclear and conventional warfighting Doctrines. Pakistan has enough land based missiles to carry out such a first strike by launching Tactical Nuclear Weapons, either as a demonstrative one or on a tactical target to inflict sufficient damage to own troops and concentrations which are purely military in nature and thus be termed as Counter Troop. In all likelihood such a strike would be on Indian soil but be termed as defensive. He feels that the current Indian doctrinal position of a full fledged Indian counter value response to such tactical nuclear use may not be viable. He recommends instead a matching response with own tactical warheads which will enable own conventional offensives to proceed apace.
This article is published with the kind permission of "Defence and Security Alert (DSA) Magazine" New Delhi-India
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In May 1998 India and Pakistan carried
out nuclear explosions in their respective
countries and in the face of great
opprobrium of many countries declared
themselves as new ‘nuclear weapon’ powers.
Soon the think tanks of both countries
started their deliberations to evolve nuclear
doctrines suited to their strategic needs. India
declared a policy of NO FIRST USE while
Pakistan made no such commitment and
remained ambiguous, with a stated position
that India has a much larger conventional
force and could overwhelm Pakistan Forces
in a conventional war; hence Pakistan may
/ will resort to FIRST USE if needed. This in
essence implied that India will not use nuclear
weapons first but if the other side chose to
do so India will retaliate fully to the extent
necessary. Both sides since then steadily built
up their nuclear stockpile and today by some
educated estimates Pakistan has much larger
a nuclear arsenal than India and in fact has
emerged as the fifth largest country behind
USA, Russia, China and France.
This concept or doctrine remained valid
till such time both sides had strategic
nuclear weapons of large yields, ranging
upwards of 20 Kiloton and above. This also
meant that such weapons will essentially be
COUNTER VALUE because of the inevitable
collateral damage and not likely to remain
confined to COUNTER FORCE. With
induction of Tactical Nuclear Weapons
however by Pakistan, there is a paradigm
shift which needs to be articulated.
Tactical nuclear weapon refers to a
weapon designed to be used in battlefield
in a military situation as opposed to
Strategic Weapons which are designed to
menace large population. In other words, the
former is meant to be used primarily against
enemy forces while the latter counter value,
meant for targets which may include civilian
objectives like population centres. Tactical
nuclear weapons were a large part of World’s
nuclear stockpile during the Cold War and
still constitute a sizeable number with USA
and Russia and perhaps others.
A sizeable group of strategic thinkers
maintain that THERE IS NO SUCH
THING AS A TACTICAL NUCLEAR
WEAPON because once a nuclear
weapon has been launched by any side
regardless of its size and yield it is “open
season” thereafter and the adversary
is free to use its strategic weapons in a
counter value mode
It was Robert Mc Namara, the great
strategic American thinker and once
The Defence Secretary of USA who first
articulated the concept of counter force
strategy publicly in 1962 when he said that
“Complete destruction of cities etc. would
ultimately lead to a Mutually Assured
Destruction situation. Instead cities can be
held hostages; to destroy them at the outset
was to sacrifice their principal value as object
of leverage against the enemy. If War comes,
USA will destroy enemy’s military forces and
not his civilian population.” This concept
led to the development of tactical nuclear
weapons which enabled the power using them to confine the proposed strike to enemy troops and material without a risk of major collateral damage to civilian
population.
Use of tactical nuclear weapons can be Counterforce or Demonstrative to show the will and determination of the user
to use larger yield nuclear weapons against strategic targets if necessary. The deploying of tactical nuclear weapons
is however fraught with risk of escalation quickly, particularly with the side having no self-imposed restrain of
NO FIRST USE. Suspicion of the adversary’s intention can lead to an early launch of a weapon because of the syndrome
of -“He thinks, we think, he thinks we think; he thinks we will attack, so he thinks we shall: SO WE MUST”. It is further
accentuated if the releasing authority is delegated to subordinate commanders instead of being retained in the hands
of a central authority.
A sizeable group of strategic
thinkers maintain that THERE IS
NO SUCH THING AS A TACTICAL
NUCLEAR WEAPON because
once a nuclear weapon has been
launched by any side regardless of
its size and yield it is “open season”
thereafter and the adversary is free
to use its strategic weapons in a
counter value mode. The discussion
has gone on not only in India but
in many of the advanced countries
having nuclear weapons where
many subscribe to the idea that
tactical nuclear weapons have no
place in the dialectics of nuclear
weapons. The writer does NOT
subscribe to this with any degree of
conviction.
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Pakistan nuclear doctrine
Now let us look briefly at Pakistan
nuclear arsenal. By some guesstimate
Pakistan has approximately 90 to 120
warheads with adequate number
of delivery systems in the shape of
aircraft and different varieties of
nuclear capable missiles including
the latest Shaheen I and Shaheen II.
Besides they have developed /
been gifted cruise missiles Babur
and Raad which are nuclear
capable. With enhanced capacity
of production of weapon grade
plutonium they are in a position
to add four to six warheads every
year to their stockpile. To these the
latest vector which has been added
is a Tactical Missile System Nasr
which Pakistan claims is nuclear
capable. This missile has been tested
during a recent exercise by Pak
forces. Obviously this also implies
that they have in all likelihood,
carried out miniaturisation of the
nuclear systems to be fitted into
The Nasr Missile which are claimed
to be highly mobile and vehicle
mounted. Further, because of its
comparatively smaller size and
mobility would be easy to conceal
which becomes vital in today’s
battlefield which is becoming more
and more transparent. This system,
purely by definition would fall
in the category of tactical nuclear
weapon.
Pakistan has stated without any
ambiguity that their nuclear arsenal
is solely India specific. Further they
have repeatedly emphasised that
they will resort to nuclear weapons
should their core interests be
threatened which include a number
of parameters of space, survival
of military forces and economic
blockade.
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